Saturday, October 13, 2012

Romney Election Odds

Will Mitt Romney win the November 2012 Presidential Election? The chart below the closing price from the political prediction market, Intrade.  Note that this graph is continually updated.

Each number on the price scale represents the market-based probability in percentage terms for the event occurring (in this case, the event is that Mitt Romney will be elected).



Obama Election Chances

Will President Obama retain the Presidency in 2012?  The chart below shows the closing price from the political prediction market, Intrade.  Note that this graph is continually updated.

Each number on the price scale represents the market-based probability in percentage terms for the event occurring (in this case, the event is that President Obama will re-elected).



>> see the Prediction Market prospects for all GOP candidates.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Romney's Lead Grows to Near Certainty

Tired of biased media pundits, questionable polls and lame analysis from political "strategists" who try to shape opinions rather than assess the political landscape? We add some sanity to the 2012 election discussion with actual data from “prediction markets” to assess the 2012 Presidential election. 

Despite the continuous media blather about Romney not being able to "close the deal", according to those who put their money where there mouth is, this deal is getting pretty close to inevitable at this point.

The number next to each name represents the candidate's market-based prospects for the GOP nomination in percentage terms. Click on a name to see their prospects over time. 

92 Romney 1 Santorum 1 Gingrich Paul

 >> Learn more about prediction markets.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

GOP Candidate Presidential Prospects

Tired of biased media pundits, questionable polls and lame analysis from political "strategists" who try to shape opinions rather than assess the political landscape? We add some sanity to the 2012 election discussion with actual data from “prediction markets” to assess the 2012 Presidential election. 

Despite the continuous media blather about Romney not being able to "close the deal", according to those who put their money where there mouth is, this deal is getting pretty close to inevitable at this point.

The number next to each name represents the candidate's market-based prospects for the GOP nomination in percentage terms. Click on a name to see their prospects over time. 

86 Romney 4 Santorum 3 Gingrich Paul

 >> Learn more about prediction markets.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Santorum Rises Against Romney on Eve of Michigan Results

On the eve of the Michigan and Arizona primary results, Romney's lead in prediction markets has declined from 79% to about 72%, while Santorum has surged from 6 to 11%.



> See real-time prediction market results here

GOP Candidate Presidential Prospects

Tired of biased media pundits, questionable polls and lame analysis from political "strategists" who try to shape opinions rather than assess the political landscape? We add some sanity to the 2012 election discussion with actual data from “prediction markets” to assess the 2012 Presidential election. 

The number next to each name represents the candidate's market-based prospects for the GOP nomination in percentage terms. Click on a name to see their prospects over time.  >> Learn more about prediction markets.

72 Romney 11 Santorum 4 Gingrich Paul
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